Ace of Spades HQ: Early election analysis


The Southwest has been rumored to be the future graveyard of the GOP, but both New Mexico and Nevada outperformed the national trend. Arizona’s lack of movement is probably more the result of a slight 2008 bounce for McCain than anything else. So, perhaps that conclusion is a little premature.Those all-important swing states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado? All of them underperformed the national trend. I’m sure Obama’s ad blitz, early voting push and microtargeting focus on these states had plenty to do with that.Some good news: the Rust Belt (minus Ohio) seems to be moving in the GOP’s direction as a region. Unfortunately, it wasn’t quite fast enough for the 2012 election but Republicans would be smart to target this region more forcefully in upcoming elections.Finally, the gut punch: See the five reddest states on that map? This indicates the strongest movement towards the GOP in 2012 and all five states went to Mitt Romney decisively. There were also Senate races in those five states. We lost four of them.

Read the whole thing here.



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